I’ve been short the most vulnerable US stocks since early Jan. 176% fund performance YTD.
The market went down 41% and my selection of stocks went down 57% in the same time period. So I guess I selected the stocks well.
The US recession is inevitable (because of the debt cycle stage we’re in), but it has a chance for a fast recovery before the final fall. Reason: the lay-offs haven’t started yet (they usually trigger a chain reaction of spending cuts) and I don’t see a debt squeeze at this point (the delinquency rate data are pending, but no rumours about debt defaults).
Why did I open the short positions in early Jan: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/timing-recession-im-placing-leveraged-short-bet-heres-nichiporets/