Finance

What is happening with the economy after the extra powerful COVID stimulation? And why do the stocks suddenly go up, as if though there's no pandemics? I will try to systemize my thoughts in a form of short notes. Background 1. A lot of printing has been happening in the US to get out of COVID crisis. 2. The money have likely flown into the financial assets, real assets, foreign currencies and gold (they didn't go to the banks equity: M3/M1 has fallen drastically and also Equity/Assets fallen for the banks). 3. Some industries are severely depressed (travel, hotel, airlines and other transport, retail, food) What is happening now Stocks rise because of the printing, not because of the results (check P/E); also there is a self-reinforcing process: people invest because the s...

I've been short the most vulnerable US stocks since early Jan. 176% fund performance YTD. The market went down 41% and my selection of stocks went down 57% in the same time period. So I guess I selected the stocks well. The US recession is inevitable (because of the debt cycle stage we're in), but it has a chance for a fast recovery before the final fall. Reason: the lay-offs haven't started yet (they usually trigger a chain reaction of spending cuts) and I don't see a debt squeeze at this point (the delinquency rate data are pending, but no rumours about debt defaults). Why did I open the short positions in early Jan: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/timing-recession-im-placing-leveraged-short-bet-heres-nichiporets/

My aim This article is the explanation of my logic behind opening leveraged short positions on several US stocks. Whatever I write about, however right or wrong, I support by putting my capital on it. I am publishing this to achieve two objectives: To receive feedback that will help me to time the recession even better, or that will convince me that I am wrong, and I won’t lose moneyTo find partners with whom we can run a fund so that we can bounce our ideas off each other. My vision is to find boom/bust sequences in the economies of different countries and their sub-sectors I am going to lay down my logic in three articles: Timing a recessionSelecting the most vulnerable industries and stocks to short themTiming the rock bottom, the perfect time to go long Note that I m...